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Dr. Walid Phares
Ft Hood's Terror: The US Failed by Its Own Experts
January 23, 2010
The Pentagon's
review of the act of Terrorism committed at Fort
Hood by Major Nidal Hasan deserves national
attention not only regarding its important
conclusions but also what it missed in terms of
analysis. In this piece, I'll address major points
made public in the media and raise issues about the
bigger picture regarding the terror threat America
is facing today.
Jihadi Penetration: Part of a War
As announced by Secretary of Defense
Robert Gates, the report "reveals serious 'shortcomings' in the
military's ability to stop foreign extremists from trying to use
America's own soldiers against the United States." The Pentagon's review
of the Fort Hood massacre stated that "serious shortcomings" were found
in "the military's ability to stop foreign extremists from trying to use
its own soldiers against the United States." The first question that
comes to mind is to know if the issue is about "shortcomings," as
described by the Pentagon, or is it about "systemic failures" as
announced by President Obama in his evaluation of the Christmas Day
terror act? For as underlined by the Department of Defense in the case
of Major Hasan, these failures were about the military's ability to
"stop foreign terrorists from using American soldiers against the United
States."
Such a statement is extremely important
as it finally informs the public that US personnel is indeed being
infiltrated and recruited by foreign Jihadists, which are described
politically by the Administration as "extremists." Hence, the first
logical conclusion from that finding is that Jihadi networks are
performing acts of War (and thus of Terrorism) against US defense assets
and personnel in the homeland. Thus this warrants the reevaluation of
the conflict and re-upgrading it to a state of war, even though it would
still need to be determined "with whom."
Self Radicalization
Secretary Gates said "military
supervisors are not properly focused on the threat posed by
self-radicalization and need to better understand the behavioral warning
signs." He added that "extremists are changing their tactics in an
attempt to hit the United States." Concluding that the Fort Hood
massacre "reveals shortcomings in the way the department is prepared to
defend against threats posed by external influences operating on members
of our military community," he said. "We have not done enough to adapt
to the evolving domestic internal security threat to American troops and
military facilities."
The bottom line of the Department of
Defense report is, as I relentlessly argued before and since Hasan's
shootings, that the US military and intelligence lack the capability of
detecting radicalization, should it be "self" developed or activated
from overseas.
American analysts are not able to
"detect" radicalization from where it is generated. In my last three
books and dozens of briefings and testimonies to legislative and
executive forums, I underlined the crucial importance of identifying the
ideology behind radicalization. For the latter is produced by a set of
ideas assembled in a doctrinal package. Unfortunately the Bush and Obama
Administrations were both poorly advised by their experts. They were
told, wrongly, that if they try to identify a "doctrine" they will be
meddling with a religion. Academic and cultural advisors of the various
US agencies and offices (the majority of them at least) failed their
government by triggering a fear of theological entanglement.
To the surprise of our Arab and Muslim
allies in the region, who know how to detect the Jihadist narrative,
Washington disarmed its own analysts when bureaucrats of the last two
years banned the reference to the very ideological indicators that could
enable our analysts in detecting the radicalization threat.
And it is not about "extreme religious
views" inasmuch as it is about an ideology. If Arabs and Muslims can
identify it in the Middle East, why can't Americans do this also? Simply
because Jihadi propaganda already penetrated our advising body and
fooled many of our decision makers into dropping the ideological
parameters. Hence, stunningly, Major Hasan, who amazingly displayed all
the narrative of Jihadism, was not spotted as a Jihadist. The report
tried to blame his colleagues and other superiors for failing to find
him "suspicious enough" and thus for causing a shortcoming. I disagree:
what allowed Hasan to move undetected was a bureaucratic memo issued
under both Administrations and made into policy last summer, ordering
the members of the public service to not look at ideology or refer to
words that can detect it. We did it to ourselves.
The Strategic Threat Ahead
The report raises "serious questions"
about whether the military is prepared for similar attacks, particularly
"multiple, simultaneous incidents." In my book, Future Jihad:
Terrorist Strategies against America published half a decade ago, I
sternly warned about the strategic determination of Jihadists, al Qaeda
and beyond, to target the US homeland, not just in terms of terrorizing
the public, but in the framework of a chain of strikes widening
gradually until it would evolve to coordinated, simultaneous attacks.
In 2006-2007, I served on the then Task
Force on Future Terrorism of the Department of Homeland Security and
developed an analysis clearly showing the path to come. My briefings to
several entities and agencies in the Defense sector clearly argued that
implanting, growing, and triggering homegrown Jihadists to strike at US
national security is at the heart of the enemy's strategy. I even
projected the existence of a "war room" that directs these operations;
Imam al Awlaki's example of multiple operatives' coordination is only a
small fragment of what it would be like.
In facing this mushrooming threat, not
only do we not have a detection capacity to counter it, but we have been
induced in error to adopt the opposite policies suitable to our national
defense. The misleading advice that the US Government relied on is
deeply responsible for the failure to counter, stop and reverse
radicalization.
The report, although a step in the right
direction, has troubling shortcomings:
A. It claims "fixation on religion" is a
missing indicator. Meaning if Muslims insist on praying or Catholics
refrain from eating meat on Fridays during Lent this could be a lead to
radicalization. Obviously it is a dead end; for the indicator is the
substance of the fixation, not the mere fact of religiosity. One
statement of commitment to Jihad is by far more important than fasting
during the whole month of Ramadan. It is not theology it is ideology,
even though many writers in town insist on merging both based on their
readings of text. I offer our government an easier way to detect the
threat, without venturing in inextricable religious debates or
unnecessarily apologizing for one or other particular faith.
B. The report describes Hasan as "an odd
duck and a loner who was passed along from office to office and job to
job despite professional failings that included missed or failed exams
and physical fitness requirements." Nice shot, but it leads nowhere. For
the other potential Hasans amongst us aren't all necessarily odd, failed
students and physically unfit. The next Jihadists could be sharp, are
professionals and extremely social. It all depends on what the "War
Room" is going to surprise us with. Medical doctors in Britain, rich
young men from Nigeria or converted farmers from North Carolina aren't
all in one profile basket. So let's stop looking for framing "profiles"
and start detecting ideology.
C. The report calls on the Defense
Department "to fully staff those teams of investigators, analysts,
linguists and others so the Pentagon can quickly see information
collected across government agencies about potential links between
troops and terrorist or extremist groups." This is a long awaited
initiative short of creating further catastrophes by staffing our
bureaucracies with more cultural advisors, who would mislead our leaders
further and worsen the already fledgling counter ideology sectors
already in place. I am making the bold statement that our problem is
precisely that the expertise we sought over the past eight years is the
reason for our inability to detect radicalization. Hence I would
recommend an additional inquiry into our own specialization body before
we re-contract it to lead the war of ideas.
The beef is there. Everything else is
dressing.
About Dr. Walid Phares
Dr. Walid Phares is the Director of Future Terrorism
Project at the Foundation for the
Defense of
Democracies in Washington, a visiting scholar at the European Foundation
for Democracy and the author of the War of Ideas. Dr. Phares was one of the
architects of UNSCR 1559. He is also a Professor of Middle East
Studies at Florida Atlantic University and a contributing expert to FOX News.
Dr. Phares teaches Global Strategies at the National Defense
University. He serves as the secretary general of the
Transatlantic Parliamentary Group on Counter Terrorism. Professor Phares’
is the author of two critical books on the Islamofascist threat to Western
Civilization, "Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against the West ”
and "The War of Ideas: Jihadism
Against Democracy." Dr. Phares
is a co-secretary general of the Trans Atlantic
Legislative Group on Counter Terrorism. |