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To Usama Bin Laden, the confrontation in Gaza is not a local national issue but it is part of what he coins as world Jihad against the Kuffars (infidels), or more precisely the "Crusader-Zionist enemy.” This stark ideological reminder came through a new audio message by the leader of al Qaeda at a time Israeli forces and Hamas’Jihadists were still fighting in the enclave. The Bin Laden address was titled "Call to Jihad to stop the aggression against Gaza” and was addressed to the "Umma” (Islamic Nation). The following is my analysis of this latest tape.
The Usual Questions First The media’s first questions are about identification and timing. Is it really Bin Laden on the tape and if so, why is he talking now after long months of silence? While many question the survival of the man who ordered the 9/11 attacks until now, the counter terrorism community as a whole still believe that Usama Bin Laden is alive; this is his voice but arguments are different and diverse. In my view, the two salient indicators about him being alive are: the fact that he mentions contemporary events (assuming this is indeed his voice) and as important, the issue of leadership of the organization. If he dies, it will be known internally, and thus claims for leadership would emerge. As far as timing of UBL’s messages, it has now taken a different character as in the 1990s and just after Tora Bora. The commander of al Qaeda projects himself as the supreme leader of Jihad, a sort of an undeclared Caliph. His interventions are often a "state of the Union” type, dealing with the global war against the infidels, focusing on battlefields here and there. His deputy, a sort of undeclared Prime Minister of Global Jihad, takes care of expanding on issues and responding to arguments and "questions” from the base. However, as Gaza’s battle became unavoidably "the” most important topic in Jihadi propaganda over the past weeks, the "virtual Caliph” was pressed to utter the sublime position, and he just did.
Gaza in Context The first batch of remarks in Usama’s message draws the "big image” of the struggle. It is aimed at putting the Jihad of Gaza in its historical global context as seen by al Qaeda. He begins by reminding the Jihadi audiences that the current Arab and Muslim regimes are penetrated by the West and are incapable of delivering a fight against the Kuffar anywhere on the globe. "In every capital today, there is a new (Paul) Bremer, either openly or behind closed doors, and with him there is an (former Prime Minister of Iraq) Allawi who is following his orders, and another Sistani (Shia moderate cleric) or Tantawi (Sunni moderate cleric) backed up by scholars and ntellectuals who promote their agendas.” To Bin Laden, the Umma can’t win the war with bad apples on the inside. He goes: "All of these elements are enemies to our nation and the rulers allows them access to media outlets so they can speak to the masses and regularly deceive them while the true scholars are not allowed to conduct a Friday sermon in a small forgotten village.”
Bin Laden’s priority is to have the right Jihadi leaders planning and waging the war, not the "fake” ones. Here, one can see the difference between al Qaeda’s strategic approach and the methods used by other Islamist and pan-Arabist regimes and forces. In short, Usama is warning that unless the struggle is fully led by his organization, the fights here and there under the command of failed politicians and clerics are useless.
Gaza’s Jihad Reframing the current fight in Gaza, Bin Laden says:
"There is only one powerful means to restore Palestine and that is Jihad in the path of God, as we have said before.”
Drawing from classical Salafi Jihadi doctrine he reasserts that the Umma is "capable of defeating the Zionist entity with its masses and enormous resources regardless of the rulers, and in spite of the fact that the majority of them are in collaboration with the Zionist Crusader alliance.” As I underlined in my book Future Jihad (2005), al Qaeda’s strategic doctrine is based on the perception that the Jihadists have defeated the Soviet Union, thus they can crush the United States and its allies.
"I want to remind you of two pieces of evidence that prove that you can defeat our enemy with very limited resources. The first is the major defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and its subsequent fall with the permission of Allah and with the help of the masses without any help from your governments' armies. Since then, the flag of the Soviet Union was snatched from the world, and has been trashed in the basket of forgetfulness, thanks be to God.”
Beyond the "Soviet defeat” claim Bin Laden asserts that the 9/11 strikes and its aftermath is a "second evidence” of success. He reminds his listeners that:
"...the leaders of our region surrendered to them more and more despite its tyranny and its full support of the Zionist entity. Right then, a few of your own sons decided to wage Jihad against this sole power and confront the Hitler of the century, the rhinoceros of his time but we broke its horn even though he claims that he will bring the leaders of Jihad dead or alive so he can restore the pride of America and make them an example to follow but we have drawn his limit, killed his soldiers and targeted his people with God's permission.”
A gruesome description so that he can claim that "America is faltering because of the strikes of the Mujahedeen and its fallbacks.” Moving ahead in his claims he asserts also that because of the Jihadi warfare, the United States "are bleeding humanly, politically and also financially.” Evidencing his argument, he postulates that "they are now drowning in the financial crisis that they are even begging from smaller nations in addition to bigger nations and therefore America is no longer feared by its enemies and not respected by its allies.” Therefore stretches the commander of the al Qaeda nebulous "the biggest loser when it comes to this American decline is the Zionist entity because they will lose the vital veins that support its life.” The Bin Ladenist logic, which derives from Salafi combat doctrines, is historicist. Since the al Qaeda-led Jihad crumbled the Soviets in Afghanistan and the 2001 attacks against the US weakened the last infidel superpower therefore the:
"...quick and tremendous decline of the American might is one of the main reasons that the Israelis rushed their barbaric aggression on Gaza in a desperate attempt to take advantage of the last days of the Bush's term and the Neo conservatives, this phase where they received more support than ever to attack Muslims allover and press on the American dominance in the region."
The explanation advanced by the "virtual Caliph” is an internationalist approach to Jihadism. He is telling Hamas that Gaza was attacked because al Qaeda is winning the war the infidels, so there should not be reasons to be very concerned.
"The forces of the White House are being smashed on the rock of the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan and is drowning in the swamps of Iraq and that is why the Israelis are rushing to annihilate their opponents in Gaza and replace them with Abbas and his so called authority so he protect their backs and that is why they carried out this horrible massacre before the end of Bush's term and because the American weakness becomes more apparent and the veto regime falls.”
So, Usama’s bottom line to his constituencies is that even if the Israelis are moving inside the enclave for now, and even if the Arab and Muslim regimes are incapable to come to the rescue, Jihadists have to look at the big picture: America is falling, economically first.
Economic Jihad is Working The massive argument Bin laden wants to impress upon his public is an impending financial collapse of the American titan. Heavily influenced by the Jihadists on the inside of the US, the al Qaeda argument is full of citations:
"Here is Biden, the vice president of the elect president says that the crisis is bigger that they expected and that the American economy, all of it is open to collapse. Even Alan Greenspan said that the great depression will look like a nice picnic when comparing it to the current situation. The world will never go back to the same way it was before and that the United States will lose its stature as a super power when it comes to the financial system.”
The idea is to convince the Jihadists in particular and as many people possible within the sphere of radical Islamism in general that terror options are in fact working.
"The Jihad of your sons against the Crusader-Zionist alliance is one of the main factors after the blessing of Allah, of the destructive results to our enemy and that is now showing after the seven years war and I would like to assure you, my dear Umma that Allah had bestowed us with endurance that will last us to keep on the course of Jihad for seven more years and other seven and seven so know, that patience is the best weapon and faith is the best ammunition and the flag of Jihad will never fall down until judgment day.”
Bin Laden wants to take credit for the economic collapse in America due to the costly war efforts on two fronts and beyond. From the Sunni Triangle to Waziristan, it is indeed al Qaeda, the Taliban and their allies who are leading the fight. The billions of dollars are spent to contain them, reverse them, hopelessly argues the man on the audio.
Can America Continue? The big battle is with the head of the snake – that is the United States – as argued by the Salafist ideologues on al Jazeera and in the chat rooms. So why worry about Israel’s invasion in Gaza, seems to hint Bin Laden? It will all be resolved when the United States will collapse, followed by Israel:
"The question here is, will America be able to continue its war against us for more coming decades. The reports and the signs show us otherwise. There are reports that 75% of the American people are happy that the current president is leaving office because he dragged them in wars that they had nothing to do with and drown them in financial abysses that reached their ears. And he left his successor with a heavy inheritance and he left him between two issues, the sweetest of them is still bitter. It is like someone swallowing a dagger with double edges, no matter how he moves, it will cut him.”
Drawing again from what may seem to be a pro-Jihadist analysis inside America, al Qaeda’s leader theorizes on Obama’s fate with the War on Terror. Without naming him (yet), he projects failures for the US under the new administration either way. The legacy of the Bush Administration cannot be circumvented. He goes:
"The worst inheritance is when someone inherits a long guerilla war with a tough patient enemy that is financed by divine loans so if he withdraws from the war, it would be a military defeat and if he continues the war, he will drown in the financial crisis and it is even worse when he inherited him two wars and not just one and he is incompetent in continuing them.”
The message’s gist is predictive: Israel may be unleashing its power inside Gaza under the eyes of the worthless regimes, but the real response to the "kafir aggression” is happening elsewhere. And it is al Qaeda which will bring divine victory on the big Satan, the US, and thus ultimately on the regional Satan, Israel.
Other Fronts Will Open After reframing Gaza’s war in the much larger context, Bin Laden promises the Jihadi fighters in the enclave (without naming Hamas) that the "virtual Caliphate” will relieve the besieged forces strategically. He goes:
"We are on the course of opening more fronts, with Allah's permission, so what would be better my dear Umma than putting your hand in the hands of your sons the Mujahideen so we can continue Jihad against the enemies of the faith so we can continue bleeding them out in these two wars, these two open fronts in front of you against the crusader Zionist alliance and their agents in the region in Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Waziristan, Muslim North Africa and in Somalia. Your duty is to support them in all means. I have the expertise of Jihad all thanks to Allah.”
So in sum the difference between the two Jihadi approaches in the Gaza war is between extreme internationalists, that is al Qaeda, and local Jihadists backed by the Iranian competitors, that is Hamas. To the Tehran led axis, one battle at a time, and this time it is about Hamas in Gaza. To al Qaeda it is all battles at all times, including Gaza.
Money for Jihad Bin Laden speech had another urgent component: a direct call for fundraising. He complained so much about Petrodollars spent by regimes with little efficiency while few dinars go to al Qaeda that could finance Jihadi miracles. Not believing in regimes, he called on Islamist businessmen to help:
"I know the financial expenses, so one businessman's donation is sufficient to help in any of these fronts.”
He seems to argue that hundreds of millions of dollars spent by the Iranian regime and the Wahabis are not producing what al Qaeda can "achieve” with much modest funds. Only if few emirs, businessmen and generous sympathizers would transfer some bucks.
Conclusion
Unlike analysis that rails the speech, from a reading perspective of the
Jihadi mind, the tape is rich in indicators and trends. It reflects
accurately the intra Jihadi debate. It shows that we’re dealing with
different Jihadi approaches to Gaza’s war. However, they both end up in
one path: killing the Peace Process, defeating Arab and Muslim
moderates, eliminating Israel, weakening Europe, and crumbling America. |
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