Bob Shoemaker
H1N1: The Reality of the Emergency
October 27, 2009

The Associated Press reported that, "President Barack Obama declared the swine flu outbreak a national emergency, giving his health chief the power to let hospitals move emergency rooms offsite to speed treatment and protect non-infected patients."

Health authorities say more than 1,000 people in the United States, including almost 100 children, have died from the strain of flu known as H1N1, and 46 states have widespread flu activity.

"Many millions" of Americans have had swine flu so far, according to an estimate that CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden gave Friday. The government doesn't test everyone to confirm swine flu so it doesn't have an exact count. He also said there have been more than 20,000 hospitalizations.

Many millions? That’s more than a million and at least two million so let’s go with the two million figure for the hell of it. If 1,000 people have died from H1N1 and there have been 2,000,000 Americans who have had it, that fatality rate is .05%. That’s one in 2,000.

The current US population is approximately 300,000,000 people so the infection rate is .67% or one in 150.

If you do get swine flu, there is a 1% (one in 100) chance that it will be so severe that you will require hospitalization. If you are one of the very few who will require hospitalization, there is a 5% (one in 20) chance that you will die from it.

Let’s take a look at some other causes of death to put this into perspective...

According to the 2002 World Health Organization statistics (latest available):

6.23% - Unintentional injuries (Accidents, etc)
2.84% - Intentional injuries (Suicide, Violence, War, etc)
2.23% - Malaria
2.90% - Road traffic accidents
0.69% - Falls
0.67% - Drowning
0.61% - Poisoning
0.55% - Fires
0.32% - Sexually transmitted diseases excluding HIV/AIDS
0.30% - War
0.28% - Syphilis
0.18% - Hepatitis B
0.16% - Alcohol use disorders
0.15% - Drug use disorders
0.09% - Hepatitis C

All of these exceed the .05% fatality rate of H1N1.

According to the latest available information from the CDC (2004), the leading causes of death in the United States:

27.5% - Diseases of heart
23.2% - Malignant neoplasms
6.20% - Cerebrovascular diseases
5.50% - Chronic lower respiratory diseases
4.70% - Accidents (unintentional injuries)
3.00% - Alzheimer’s disease
2.80% - Diabetes mellitus
2.50% - Influenza and pneumonia
1.40% - Intentional self–harm (suicide)
1.10% - Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis
0.40% - Assault (homicide)
0.03% - Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)

With the exception of HIV, all of these exceed the .05% fatality rate of H1N1.

.05% constitutes a national emergency? By this logic, the normal seasonal flu is always a national emergency.

If the Obama administration is going to declare the swine flu a national emergency...what is he to do about all of the other causes of death in the United States? What about this rash of traffic accidents that are contributing to the 4.7% of accidental deaths of Americans? Not to mention the risk that everyone is putting themselves in by sitting in a pub having a couple of cold beers, pizza and wings with their friends while catching the game...that behavior contributes to heart disease and chronic liver disease. Those combine for a whopping 28.6% fatality rate! In addition, you are nearly 10 times more likely to be intentionally killed by someone than you are to die from swine flu.

Another way to look at it is that there is a 99.33% chance you won’t get the swine flu. If you get swine flu, you have a 99.95% chance of survival. There is a 99% chance that you won’t need to be hospitalized. If you are hospitalized, there’s a 95% chance that you’ll be discharged out the front door and not the back.

It would be in the best interest of the country that the average American start understanding the reality of the issues being presented, rather than simply accepting what is drooled out of their television sets. We are being sold down the River Styx...literally.