At one point in the article the professor opined that Americans were pinning their hopes on a newly elected President, Barack Obama to "work miracles." He went on to write but "...in the spring it will be clear that there are no miracles."
Panarin based his predictions on a number of factors including: mass immigration; economic decline; moral degradation; a civil war and collapse of the US dollar.
Panarin's prediction on mass immigration is in the process of being fulfilled with the Southern US border becoming so porous as to effectively be nonexistent. In 2014 hordes of unaccompanied minors have crossed the border, and according to a New American report on August 5th, crossers from 75 different countries have entered the US illegally this year. There are documented regular reports in the media that crossers include members of ISIS/L as well as hundreds of drug "cartelistas."
Consider the fact that all job growth since 2000 has been filled by immigrants, not unemployed US citizens. This report comes from such widely politically diverse media outlets as: the National Review; Daily Kos; Washington Times; Huffington Post and others. There is a large influx due to human trafficking, and whereas each entrant is welcomed by the Democrat party as a prospective welfare recipient and voter, Republicans welcome them as cheap labor for business and domestic purposes. Simultaneously, Manufacturing.net reports that since 2000 the US has lost 687 thousand Hi-Tech jobs.
The present Administration deflects blame for its failure to spur the economy blaming the cost of the inherited War on Terror, other military costs and the space program. Despite this, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 16.8 trillion dollars is nearly twice that of China, and is equal to that of China, Japan, and Germany combined. Russia is in the eighth position at a 2.1 trillion dollars GDP.
A major indicator of economic vitality is the unemployment rate, currently at 6.1 percent. However, according to The Hill, real unemployment is at 18 percent based on the size of the labor force. The labor force is defined as the sum of those working and not working, with the latter seeking work. On the other hand, the labor force participation rate is the labor force as a percentage of the total population. Therefore, if the labor force participation rate is 50 percent of a total population of one thousand, the labor force would be comprised of five hundred workers. Unemployment would be the percentage of the five hundred who were not working. If an unemployed worker no longer seeks work, that worker is dropped from the rolls of the labor force and becomes a statistic in the labor force participation rate.
The labor force participation rate is 62.8 percent, the worst since the Carter Administration in the 1970s. This means that there are 117 million people in the US who are not working or seeking work. Other economic indicators are 46 million people receiving food stamps and nearly 12 million unemployed. Real household income has declined from $56 thousand in 2007 to $52 thousand in 2013 and real inflation has averaged around 5.5 percent. Home values have plunged nearly 37 percent since Dodd/Frank legislative actions induced the collapse of housing markets in 2008, and could not have intentionally been more perfectly timed to occur just before the general election.
There is an observable decline in morality in the United States including: the official normalization of aberrant sexual conduct; increases in sexually transmitted diseases; erasure of sexual inhibitions; debased public entertainment; explosion of pornography; disintegration of the traditional marriage and home; violent video games and movies that influence acting out by mentally unstable individuals; increases in single parent homes; pervasive use of incapacitating drugs; weak or nonexistent spiritual leadership; rampant hypocrisy by public and spiritual leaders; decline in church attendance; loss of confidence in public and religious institutions; political polarization; decline in respect for human life with a simultaneous increase in focus on the sub-human life i.e. wide support for "saving the whales" and domestic animals while moving politically to advance a goal of indiscriminate abortion of human babies; pervasive criminal conduct accompanied by tens of thousands of convicted, illegal immigrant criminals unilaterally released from prison by the Administration.
A salient, perhaps the most salient indicator in the decline in morality in the United States is manifest by routine lying and deception by public officials. For example, Americans elected a President who intentionally and repeatedly lies to advance his political agenda, deceives and obfuscates the official business of the United States and conceals his personal information from the American people. He does this, all the while asserting that his Administration is the most transparent in American History.
When the President declared, "In five days we will fundamentally transform America," his was a declaration of war against the traditional and successful American system. Most either did not understand or ignored his declaration. Many believe him ignorant, inexperienced, and incompetent and he is those things, but he is also ideologically driven by the belief that America has been unfair and unjust, rising to preeminence in the world on the backs of minorities at home and abroad. He is objectively wrong but his efforts to undermine – and undo – American exceptionalism is having the desired effect.
Communists and the Administration openly seek to destroy capitalism, the single most effective economic engine in the history of the world and a system that has made the United States and its population uniquely successful with the highest standard of living in human history. Capitalism is defined by Ayn Rand as comprehensive lifestyle including spiritual, economic, social and political. Her definition has merit but borders on the extreme incident to her animus for socialism and communism. Her definition is based on strict individual effort and accomplishment without regard to ones fellowman; greed and selfishness form the core of her version of capitalism.
A better definition of capitalism is economic freedom, the foundation of personal freedom, with goods and prices being the purview of buyers and sellers in the market place and characterized by the free flow of ownership, goods, services and labor. Counterpoised is the Administration's vision as stated by the President, "If you've got a business, you didn't build that." As repugnant as that statement is to the concept of free enterprise, the more invasive that government becomes in economic affairs, the truer his statement to the point that entrepreneurs and creativity are stifled or suffocated. That there are active efforts underway in the Administration and in certain areas of the country to subvert or destroy capitalism is unarguable.
The President's war strategy against America includes so called, "spreading the wealth around;" the Health Care Reform Act; increasing the number of people receiving food stamps from eight to forty six million; increasing the number of those receiving disability payments, now over ten million; extending unemployment compensation to effective permanent status; increasing taxes; and deficit spending that has increased the National Debt from 10 trillion to nearly 18 trillion dollars in less than six years. Another element of his program is his focused effort to undermine US military strength and morale through budget cuts, salary caps and dawdling on national security issues. One of his favorite tools, if not his favorite is to engage in unconstitutional Executive Actions that effectively go unchallenged. Opening the Southern Border is a major element of his war against the United States and supports his declared intentions.
Collapse of the US Dollar
The US dollar after WWII became the gold standard in world trade with business and nations using the dollar to settle their trade debts or international loans. Because the dollar has been strong, it became the medium of international exchange and has allowed the US government to borrow vast quantities from other nations to support domestic government programs that are beyond its means. Notably, China, an adversary and potential enemy is the single largest holder of US debt at around 3.8 trillion dollars.
A significant number of factors are combining to bring pressure against the US dollar. The most significant is the recent Sino-Russia agreement to bypass the dollar and trade directly in Yuan and Rubles between the two nations. This combined with chronic, intentional devaluation of the dollar; other factors of self-interest among the world's largest economies are bringing downward pressure to bear against the purchasing power of the dollar. Additional pressure comes from money investors like George Soros and others who follow his lead to sell the dollar short, betting that it will decline in value or collapse altogether. Collapse would result in very significantly diminished buying power so that the cost of goods paid for in dollars would skyrocket incident to hyperinflation caused by quantitative easing programs (printing dollar bills not supported by tax receipts) of the past decade.
Wide implications of a dollar collapse are beyond the scope of this commentary but would throw the US into an instant economic crisis. The result would be a "Perfect Sociological and Political storm" accompanied by the collapse of law and order and potential anarchy.
Despite Professor Panarin's predictions, the US has continued to muddle through, although each element of his assertion has proven to be accurate. Given the President's personal animus and ideologically driven agenda to bring the US down to size, it follows that the potential for Panarin's predictions remains real, but with his timetable failing to materialize on schedule. He neglected to take into account the inherent cohesiveness and strength of the US Constitutional Federal system that is greater than even the President's focused efforts to undermine it. And it continues to thrive as long as there is a relatively free economy and open society, incomparable in the world.
Unfortunately, the seeds of damage have been widely sown by this Administration thru politicization of much of the structure of the Federal Government, undermining the economy, fostering racial polarization, accelerating demographic change, weakening social and moral underpinnings, gutting military strength, damaging US relations with traditional allies and squandering reform efforts in the Middle East that were bought at great expenditure of US treasure, personal sacrifice and human suffering; and by ignoring if not embracing the rise of virulent Islam's efforts to establish a caliphate.
Will Panarin's predictions come to pass? As long as Americans maintain their faith in God, one another and the country as a whole, the answer is, "no." The Federal Government may collapse and that would be welcomed by many Americans, but that would not necessarily lead to the breakup of the nation given traditional ties and resilience. If, however the Administration is successful in sufficiently damaging the economic engine that has powered the nation to world preeminence, it will not be a case of if, but when the end would come with some breakup potential ensuing.
Yet...there is hope that Americans will overcome their lethargy and make critical political choices that will avert disaster. This can be done by tying the President's hands and stripping him of the dictatorial powers conferred on him by his political Party in 2009 but weakened during the 2010 mid-term elections. To stop him from further damaging the country, the process must be completed by denying his Party's control of the Senate; and then Professor Panarin can concentrate on Mr. Putin's efforts to restore the Soviet Union, and its former "glory."